Analyst: Underwood will win; Democrats will retain majority in Legislature

Political analyst and UOG professor Ron McNinch

Longtime political analyst Ron McNinch believes Dr. Robert Underwood will win the Guam Delegate race tomorrow.

McNinch has said that if the Republicans did not cross over and vote in the 2018 Democratic congressional primary race, Michael San Nicolas would not have won against then-incumbent Madeleine Z. Bordallo.

“If there was no primary in 2018, Congresswoman Bordallo would have been re-elected. For this year, I think that it is 50-50 on a runoff and I think Underwood will be elected. In a 3-way race it is hard to get 50%+1. In a runoff, Underwood will likely have 56%,” McNinch said in an interview with PNC.

As for San Nicolas getting sick this late in the game and probably getting sympathy votes, McNinch said this would not have any effect on the congressional race.

“I don’t think it really matters. I believe that if a runoff is needed it will be RU versus MSN. He will likely recover by next week. We will see,” McNinch said.

With regard to the legislative race, McNinch said the Democrats will again have the majority, most likely a 9-6 or 10-5 majority.

“Three seats are open. Two will be likely filled by Frank Blas and Tony Ada. I think there may be five new faces this election or returnees. This race favors those already in office,” McNinch said.

After the voting closes on Tuesday night, McNinch said his UOG class will be releasing the results of polls that they conducted.