McNich: Notes on Today’s Election

172

Guam – UOG Professor Ron McNich hs released the following “notes” on today’s vote.
Notes on the Guam 2012 Elections

The following are a brief set of notes on the Guam 2012 Elections

A)     Prop A: Bingo Gaming

Most polls we have conducted have shown 30-40% support, with a 60% average against. A number of factors made this a very difficult measure to pass. For example there was an active vocal opposition, but even more importantly, there was a limited effort to get this measure passed by the proponents. Blank ballots count as negative votes.  All else equal, this measure should fail.

B)      Delegate to US House of Representatives

This race was head to head with Guam Senator Frank Blas running against the incumbent Congresswoman Madeline Bordallo. Most polls we conducted placed Bordallo between 52% to 58% with a possible peak at 62%. All else equal, the strong support for Bordallo should hold.

C)      Legislative Races

Both the democrats and republicans had a full slate of candidates for the general election. Based on polling data, the majority looks to be 10-5 or 9-6 democrat, with possible 11-4 or even 8-7 outcomes, depending on efforts to encourage voters to engage in limited choice voting using less than their 15 votes. The republicans by contrast could have at the outside an 8-7 majority based on limited choice efforts, however this is unlikely.  It is more likely that 5, or 6 republicans will be elected with a possible 4 or 7 getting elected on the edges.

In this election, most incumbents will likely return, particularly the democrats. It is thought that since the executive branch will be on a 12 year cycle at a minimum led by republicans, the exiled democrats have hunkered down and concentrated on their legislative positions. There are nine “old hand” democrats running in 2012 against -0- “old hand” republicans. There are a number of factors that appear to explain this including:

•       First, the executive branch becomes a talent magnet and the pool of potential in-party candidates is reduced.  Why run for a headache legislative position when an appointment can be attained with less effort and more stability?

•       Second, losing candidates for governor and lt. governor are readily able to return to the legislature. For example, if the republicans win Adelup, the two republican contenders from the primary might vie for legislative seats in the next election. But all four of the democrat candidates might return if they desired. This creates a sort of built in counter-balancing default to favor opposing party numbers between the executive and legislative branches.

•         Third, incumbent senators are fulltime politicians and thus can spend a lot of face time with the public. They have time to attend many critical social functions and activities. Non-incumbents actually have to work for a living and are thus at a disadvantage.

•       Fourth, executive branch controlling party members may be less competitive because they have a job to fall back on. In the 2012 election, losing democrats have few political job choices oter than humbly serving on a legislative staff.

•       Finally legislative majorities are a function of legislative experience. The average number of terms for incumbent democrat senators is about 4.7 for republicans, it is 1.2 terms.

Legislative Estimates
Names are by placement in the last poll.

Key     I = Incumbent    D-Democrat     R=Republican      # = number of terms served, if any

The average noted is average rank in the last five polls Sep-Nov 2012

Frank Aguon (I, D, 5 ) Returning to the legislature following his run for Lt. Governor, his average has been 2.2. Very Stable.

Tom Ada (I, D, 6 ) As a moderate-centrist he has a 5.0 average. Very Stable.

Dennis Rodriguez (I, D, 1 ) The top freshman incumbent with a 2.2 average, very stable.

Tina Muna Barnes (I, D, 4 ) With a 4.2 average, very stable.

Judi Won-pat ( I, D, 7) With a 3.0 rank average, very stable.

Rory Respicio ( I, D, 5) With a 6.8 average, very stable.

Judy Guthertz ( I, D, 3) With a 7.6 average very stable.

Ben Pangelinan ( I, D, 9)  Since September, his rank has risen steadily from 14th to 8th, with an average of 10.6. Very stable.

T. Morrison (R) With a rank average of 11.0, Morrison has has a 3.75 rank placement wobble. (5th to 13th range likely)

BJ Cruz (I, D, 3) With an 8.0 average, fairly stable with a 1.2 wobble.

Mike Limtiaco (R)With a 10.6 placement, he has a 4.5 wobble. (5th to 16th range likely)

Tony Ada (I, R, 2) 10.2 Average (6th to 16th range)

Brant McCreadie (R) 17 Average (Can finish 8th-17th)

Aline Yamashita (I, R, 1) 11.6 Average, (can finish 12th to 16th)

Mike San Nicolas (D) 17.2 Average, (can finish 10th to 17th)

**

Adolpho Palacios ( I, D, 4) Average 14.2 (Can finish 11th to 20th)

Sam Mabini ( I, R, 1)  Average 18.2 (Can finish 15th to 17th  )

Joe San Augustin (D) Average 19.8 (Can Finish 15th to 20th)

Adonis Mendiola (R) Average 21 (17th to 21st)

Chris Duenas ( I, R, 1) Average 16.8 (15th to 19th)

Mana Silva Taijeron (I, R, 1) Average 14.4 (11th to 21st)

***
***
Estimate Based on Average Rank

Average Rank Sep-Nov 2012 List (5 polls)

Frank Aguon,   2.2

Dennis Rodriguez 2.2

Tina Muna Barnes 2.4

Judi Won-pat  3.0

Tom Ada  5.0

Rory Respicio  6.8

Judy Guthertz  7.6

BJ Cruz  8

Tony Ada  10.2

Mike Limtiaco  10.6

Ben Pangelinan  10.6

T. Morrison  11

Aline Yamashita  11.6

Adolpho Palacios  14.2

Mana Silva Taijeron  14.5

^^^

Chris Duenas  16.8

Brant McCreadie  17

Mike San Nicolas  17.2

Sam Mabini   18.2

Joe San Augustin  19.8

Adonis Mendiola  21