McNinch: Governor’s Race Down to the Wire


Guam – UOG Professor Dr. Ron McNinch McNinch says there is no clear front runner in the Governor’s race which is “up and down a lot.”

In a release ahead of his presentation to the Rotary Club of Tumon bay today [Tuesday] McNinch said “In the last week alone, both candidates have been tied or up by three points,” says McNinch, “so this will be a race down to the wire … no directional trend has been set yet,” he says.

On the other hand McNinch says it “could break into a strong lead in the next ten days for either side. Both sides have at least 45%, that means the remaining 10% will decide the race. This 10% can wobble a lot in the next two weeks. It is hard to tell where this 10% may go exactly.”

With undecided voters factored in,  he says the difference “on most days” between the GOP candidate Senator Eddie Calvo and Democrat former Governor Carl Gutierrez has been about 4 percentage points. But they change places, first one is ahead and then the other. And sometimes they’re tied, claims McNinch.

McNinch says the last holiday weekend will factor heavily into this race. That’s the Halloween weekend of  Saturday October 30th and Sunday October 31.

As for the Senatorial races McNinch predicts that the 11 incumbents will probably get re-elected. As for the 4 open seats he says the top new faces are Mana Silva Taijeron, Aline Yamashita, Corinna Gutierrez-Ludwig and Dennis Rodriguez, Jr. “This also means a democrat majority, all else equal,” says McNinch.

And the race for Attorney General he says is a “new game following the primary” and “may be closer than many suspect.”