McNinch Says Gubernatorial Race Too Close to Call


Guam – UOG Public Administration Professor Ron Mcninch says the gubernatorial race is too close to call. Although he wouldn’t divulge any specifics about the polls he’s conducted today Mcninch spoke to rotary club members about his thoughts on the election.

So which gubernatorial team is ahead in the polls? Well, although UOG Professor Ron Mcninch has done some polling he says the numbers change to quickly to call it. “This race is unlike any race I’ve seen so far. It’s up and down it’s even and last week it was up down and even and this week it’s about the same thing,” said Mcninch.

However when asked by Rotary Club members Mcninch wouldn’t reveal any of the specifics of his polls. “In fact I can tell you just last week we had three polls in three days one candidate was up three points in the next one they were even and the next one the other candidates were up three points so I don’t know,” said Mcninch.

A rotary club member then asked him to at least divulge his most recent poll. “Yeah it goes back and forth because it’s such a,… I’ll tell you it goes like this it’s like watching two kids on a trampoline I think it would be unfair, but I can tell you that last week Calvo was up at one point and Gutierrez was up at one point and at one point they were even.” replied Mcninch. One of the rotarians in attendance shouted “You sound like a politician.”

So why then are the numbers changing every week? “We were wondering why in the world are people’s opinions different on the weekends or over the weekends than they were during the week and then it all leads back to all roads to Guam politics lead to people talking,” explained Mcninch.

The UOG professor believes that informal conversations amongst friends, family, and acquaintances are really what is driving this election. He believes that people get together on the weekends and talk politics changing each others minds in the process. “There’s a thing that we’ve identified very very clearly in Guam politics and it’s talk driven it’s called an opinion cascade and opinion cascades happen within three to four days they happen very very quickly and they can go for or against any given candidate,” said Mcninch.

He adds that the only race closer than this was the 2006 election. He believes this election will go down to the wire adding that what happens in the last three days before the election is critical.