NWS monitoring disturbance southeast of Guam; monsoon strengthening across region

According to NWS, forecast models indicate 95W will gradually develop—but after it passes south of Guam Sunday tonight or on Monday.

The National Weather Service is reporting that weather conditions across the region remain active and it expects this trend to continue in the coming week.

The monsoon trough has been in place near or over the Marianas for several days with an embedded weak circulation, JTWC Invest Area 95W, found within the trough southeast of Guam. South of the trough, the monsoon has been strengthening over Chuuk and Yap States, and Palau.

According to NWS, forecast models indicate 95W will gradually develop—but after it passes south of Guam Sunday tonight or on Monday.

In the meantime, NWS predicts the monsoon will continue to strengthen across Micronesia, sustaining scattered to numerous showers, locally heavy rainfall, isolated thunderstorms, breezy winds and building seas and surf.

Seas and surf will likely become hazardous for small craft across western Micronesia as a result.

For Guam and the CNMI, there remains some uncertainty for the onset of the widespread showers. A Hydrologic Outlook (text bulletin stating the potential for heavy rains and flooding in the coming days) remains in effect due to the potential for significant rainfall across the region this week.

According to NWS, forecast models show a spread of estimated rainfall accumulations for the next 5 to 10 days with a surge of showers possible midweek, and a second surge possible later this coming weekend. However, NWS said conditions could change in the next few days with rainfall expectations increasing or decreasing, depending on the evolution of 95W.

What should you do?

Be wary of low-lying, poor-drainage and flood-prone areas. Check storm drains in your area to make sure they are not clogged. Heavy showers can cause standing water to rise quickly. If you are near rivers and streams—or plan to hike, please be alert of your surroundings. Water levels can rise rapidly causing strong currents in a flash. For mariners across Micronesia: winds, seas and surf will build the next few days, likely becoming hazardous for the operation of small craft. Consider delaying inter-island travel until conditions improve. Finally, stay up-to-date with the latest weather forecasts on our web page.

For More Information:

***Guam and CNMI
Full text bulletin of the Hydrologic Outlook:

Latest forecast for Guam and the CNMI:

***Chuuk and Yap States, and Republic of Palau
Full text bulletin of the Special Weather Statement:

Latest Coastal Waters Forecast:

For all other weather information, including radar and satellite data, go to the main NWS page at: https://www.weather.gov/gum/