The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a near-normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Outlook for the remainder of 2021 for the Republic of Palau (ROP), the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) and the Territory of Guam.
The National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office Guam, predicts that the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI), which include the ROP, the FSM, the RMI, the CNMI and Guam, will likely see near-normal tropical cyclone (TC) activity for the remainder of 2021. Near-normal activity would be consistent with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions.
Because of the large expanse of the Micronesian region, the TC activity will vary considerably east to west and north to south. Later-season activity will depend on the late-season status of ENSO. At this time, we are anticipating a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through the end of 2021.
This outlook is a general guide to the predicted, overall TC activity across Micronesia and does not predict how many of these systems will actually make landfall. However, the outlook does provide a general idea of how many tropical storms and/or typhoons could directly impact a specific island in the
case of Guam, a small cluster of islands in the case of the CNMI, entire states in the case of the FSM, and an entire country in the case of Palau and the Marshall Islands.
Although TC activity peaks around September-November for many regional locations, tropical cyclones can and do occur throughout the year across the western North Pacific. Therefore, there is no clearly defined “typhoon season.”
While TC activity can fluctuate greatly from year to year, we always urge residents and mariners to maintain preparedness for tropical cyclones year-round. Please visit the Guam Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense, the CNMI Homeland Security and Emergency Management, and FEMA’s Ready.gov for more information on preparedness plans, tips, and how to build emergency kits for home and at work.
The western North Pacific Ocean climate, and the factors that impact tropical cyclone formation typically change over a period of months. While we don’t anticipate a significant change this year, we will provide an update in August to incorporate the latest information into the outlook.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, Palisades, New York (IRI) and the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are predicting an ENSO-neutral climate state through the end of 2021.