Trade wind surge and developing depression will bring higher winds and dangerous surf

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A developing tropical depression will bring hazardous weather conditions to our region through Thanksgiving.

The National Weather Service has issued an advisory about the ongoing trade wind surge and a developing tropical depression that will combine to bring hazardous weather conditions to our region through Thanksgiving.

A statement from the weather service this morning warns that a strong ridge of high pressure over the North Pacific (the Trade Wind Surge) and a low-pressure system over eastern Micronesia (Invest Area 94W) have come together to produce a tighter pressure gradient over the Pacific east of the Marianas.

What that means is that the strong winds that have been blowing over the Marianas for the past few days will continue to increase in strength in the days ahead.

“We expect this wind surge to continue at least through Thursday,” states the NWS release.

Developing Tropical Disturbance to pass south of Guam

In addition to the trade wind surge, a low-pressure system in eastern Micronesia has been identified as is Invest Area 94W.

The NWS says they’ve been watching this circulation for a while and expect it to continue toward the Marianas.

Gradual development is expected as it nears Guam. However, the current forecast calls for 94W to pass just south of Guam late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

Intensity forecasts vary and the system has been developing slowly so far.

“We’ll know more over the next 24 hours as 94W evolves,” according to the NWS release.

Residents of Guam and the CNMI should expect strong and gusty winds to increase through Tuesday night as the disturbance passes.

Current Watches and Advisories for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan

Gale Watch: Increased risk of frequent gusts of 34 to 47 knots, most likely Tuesday through early Wednesday morning.

Wind Advisory: 6 a.m. Tuesday to 6 p.m. Wednesday: 25 to 35 mph winds from the northeast on Tuesday shifting to the southeast Wednesday. Loose outdoor objects could be blown away. This includes canopies, tarps, and tents as they could be damaged or cause damage.

Hazardous Seas Watch: Increased risk of seas of 15 feet or greater, most likely Tuesday through early Wednesday morning.

High Surf Advisory: 10 to 14 feet along north and east reefs; surf could build to between 15 and 20 feet on Tuesday.

Wave Watch model indicates surf advisories in some locations could be upgraded to surf warnings if the surf height exceeds 15 feet.

Small Craft Advisory: 15 to 25-knot winds with gusts up to 35 knots today; 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots on Tuesday. Combined seas of 9 to 11 feet, building higher tonight and Tuesday, to near 20 feet by Tuesday night.