The National Weather Service office in Tiyan has issued a Special Weather Statement advising that the first trade wind surge will arrive over the Marianas by this weekend.
The surge signals the start of the seasonal transition into the dry season. However because there is still “ample wet season moisture” the NWS advisory states that the incoming trade wind surge “will likely cause some periods of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with abundant rainfall.”
Over the next week, the Marianas could receive 3 to 5 inches of rain, with most of that coming between Monday and Wednesday.
In addition, wind speeds will be well above normal, possibly reaching 20 to 30 mph
at the peak of the event, probably next Wednesday or Thursday.
Seas and surf will rise as a result of the fresh to strong winds, the wide fetch area and the duration of this wind event. Seas will build to between 8 and 10 feet by Friday and will continue to build through the weekend. The Wave Watch 3 model indicate seas up to 19 feet next Wednesday across the CNMI, and up to 14 or 15 feet near Guam. Surf will also rise and could build up to between 15 and 20 feet along northeast and east facing reefs.
Keep up-to-date on weather forecasts and conditions as this event develops, especially if you have boating, surfing or taking part in other marine or outdoor activities.