Polls Again Fail to Predict a Close Race


Guam – Tuesday’s General Election once again proved the old adage that the only vote that counts is the one on Election Day. Despite widespread reports that a private poll put the Calvo-Tenorio team 20 points ahead of Gutierrez-Aguon, it proved to be a far closer contest than many expected.

PNC News analyst, Democrat Mike Phillips never bought into the polling hype ahead of the election. He’d heard the reports and didn’t buy them.

“The word on the street was different. I kept telling people that’s not what I’m hearing or feeling on the street.  We heard it was going to be very very close and it was.”

The Pacific News Center’s Republican analyst, Phil Flores agreed and tipped his hat to the skill of the Gutierrez campaign.

“I didn’t think it would be this close. I expected the Eddie Calvo and Ray Tenorio would be victorious but this is very, very close and again impresses upon you the ability of Carl Gutierrez to run a Gubernatorial campaign.”

Both agree that a recount is a certain but Flores is confident Calvo’s narrow win will stand.

“Eddie Calvo will be our next Governor, I’m very confident,” said Flores.

However Phillips suggests that a recount could result in something more serious for the Calvo-Tenorio team, a run-off, if the re-count pulls Calvo back below the 50% plus 1 threshold needed for victory.

“I don’t think that a 600 vote margin can be overcome by a recount, but I think a lot of people will agree that you could deny Senator Calvo the  victory by not having him reach the 50% plus 1,” margin need for victory, “if things turn up.”