Tropical disturbance southeast of Yap; no direct threat to Marianas at this time

(NWS photo/graphic)

The National Weather Service (NWS) Guam Weather Forecast office continues to monitor a tropical disturbance southeast of Yap, near 5 degrees north latitude and 144 degrees east longitude.

The tropical disturbance is now designated as “medium” by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, meaning tropical cyclone development is likely but expected to occur beyond 24 hours.

Forecast model tracks continue to vary, with a high uncertainty on exact forecast track beyond Wednesday. Current forecasts track the disturbance to near Fais and Ulithi in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame, with uncertainty increasing Thursday regarding further intensification and track.

What is certain is that Palau, Yap, and Western Yap state will see deteriorating conditions with periods of numerous showers, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds today through Thursday.

For Guam, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from converging winds flowing into the disturbance are expected around Thursday and Friday. However, this can change, especially if the disturbance begins to develop sooner, or takes a more northward track, passing closer to the Marianas. Also anticipated for the Marianas from this system is a possible west or southwest swell.

Although there is no direct threat assessed for Guam or the Marianas at this time, it is advised to take basic precautionary measures now:

· Stay up to date with the latest information. The system track or intensity may change and advisories regarding flash flooding or dangerous seas may be issued later in the week.

· Locate or prepare your emergency preparedness kits for your household; stock up on non-perishable food items and water for your household, flashlights, first-aid kits, batteries, matches or lighters, portable stove, toiletries, etc. Visit for more information on what to include in your supplies list.

· Secure important documents such as birth certificates, tax papers, and insurance documents and keep copies in a water-proof bag.

· Clear loose debris around your yard and store any items that may become airborne with heavy winds, before inclement weather arrives.

· Gas your vehicles and get fuel for your generators now while the weather is clear.

The Offices of Guam Homeland Security and Civil Defense (GHS/OCD), with partners from NWS will continue to monitor for effects on the region and provide updates.

Visit the following links for the latest advisory information:

· NWS Website:

· NWS Facebook:

· GHS/OCD Website:

· GHS/OCD Facebook: